How well do risk assessment tools predict institutional violence or violent recidivism?  Once again, Canada's Public Safety department takes a thoughtful look at an important question.  In the newly posted report, Assessing the Utility of Risk Assessment Tools and Personality Measures in the Prediction of Violent Recidivism for Adult Offenders, authors Campbell, French, and Gendreau conduct a meta-analysis of studies examining the effectiveness of tools such as the LSI-R, VRAG, SIR, HCR-20,and PCL-R, with conclusions regarding which may be more reliable predictors of violence during incarceration or after release.

October 23rd update - according the the Public Safety Canada site, the authors of this report are correcting errors they have identified, and a revised version will be posted when it is available.  Until then, the report is not available.

April 30, 2008 update - the revised report has now been posted and is available here.